The distributional effects of the EU’s and China’s climate diplomacy in Central Asia

Abstract This article focuses on the cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two economic powerhouses of Central Asia, to provide an alternative account of the distributional effects of the EU’s external climate policy, with a specific focus on the European Green Deal (EGD). By stressing both vertical state-society relations within the local realities of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and horizontal interstate power relations among states, this framework links local and national perceptions of the EU’s and China’s climate action in Central Asia through a novel approach. The alternative model hypothesizes that China has had more success in appeasing Central Asian fossil fuel-addicted elites while at the same time addressing the major distributional conflicts that decarbonization has caused in the vulnerable areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The article relies on documentary analysis (including policy, business, and media sources) and in-depth interviews with local stakeholders to examine the links between (i) the effects of the different policies of the EGD, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in particular, on national and cross-border environmental initiatives of countries in Central Asia, and (ii) China’s goal of becoming a global leader in the energy transition partly through solutions for Central Asia’s green development, including financing and expanding renewable energy technologies and equipment while simultaneously invoking a’just energy transition’ through support for traditional energy security.