Prevailing Equity and Fairness Perceptions of African LDCs under the Paris Agreement Regime

Equity and fairness are fundamental principles in climate negotiations under the UNFCCC, essential for incentivizing active and effective participation of all parties involved. Historically, the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) has been used to define the fairness and equitability of the international climate process which placed considerable accountability on developed nations on account of their historical responsibility for climate change and their capacity to address the problem. However, the Paris Agreement marked a shift toward a more inclusive global approach, requiring all countries to submit climate action plans tailored to their unique circumstances. Under the Paris Agreement, developing countries which were historically inculpable are also required to take comparable climate action alongside developed countries albeit in accordance with their socio-economic uniqueness. The study examined how Least Developed Countries (LDCs), from Africa, a sub-set of the developing countries within the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) perceive fairness and equity within the Paris Agreement framework. Using exploratory research, focused informant interviews and questionnaire to LDCs negotiators from Africa found that these countries acknowledge the retention of preferential provisions—such as flexible reporting requirements and targeted financial support—in the Paris Agreement as an important element in their consideration of fairness and equitability of the regime given their socio-economic status, vulnerability, and susceptibility to negative impacts to climate change have not improved since 1997. On the other hand, the study found that LDCs from Africa continue to face an avalanche of structural and systematic challenges in international climate negotiations which include inadequate representation, limited access to scientific information, and power imbalances with developed and emerging developing countries which necessitated the retention of the flexibilities and preferential conditions in the current climate regime. About 75% of the LDCs from Africa negotiators think that the retention of flexibilities enables them to participate in climate action in accordance with their abilities while allowing space to participate in their sustainable development and socio-economic pursuits without any restraining obligations. Despite these challenges, African LDCs from Africa, have developed ambitious NDCs, with 80% adopting economy-wide and long-term low-carbon strategies. Their commitment to implementation of the critical parts of the Paris Agreement relies heavily on targeted and preferential provision of international cooperation, reflecting both their trust in the UNFCCC and the crucial role that perceptions of fairness and equity play in sustaining this trust. To address the structure and system challenges, African LDCs have adopted innovative negotiation strategies to enhance their influence and achieve significant breakthroughs in climate diplomacy. African LDCs hold mixed views on the Paris Agreement’s approach to differentiation. While they acknowledge the Paris Agreement’s efforts to mobilize climate ambition through NDCs and provide flexibilities and preferential support for implementation, many strongly believe it falls short in delivering true fairness and equity. The research identified the Paris Agreement’s Achilles heel as its inability to effectively and practically incentivize climate ambition among parties as anticipated by the objectives of the treaty. Sixty-five percent (65%) of respondents attribute this failure to the lack of enforcement mechanisms and self-differentiation which leaves parties without sufficient motivation to independently and ambitiously determine their contributions. When asked whether the shortcomings of the Paris Agreement could lead to frustration among parties and questioning its effectiveness and pushing for a new treaty, 70% of African LDCs viewed this scenario as unlikely. However, Papua New Guinea’s recent decision to boycott climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, due to unfulfilled climate finance commitments, highlights the growing frustration among parties over the gap between the promise of the Paris Agreement and its actual delivery especially to developing countries. The study found that African LDCs generally view the Paris Agreement as equitable, given its recognition of their vulnerabilities and its emphasis on broadening global climate action to include emerging economies and non-state actors. Though LDCs from Africa welcome the inclusion of the emerging developing countries to take up enhanced commitments almost comparable to developed countries, though they also feel that treating these countries as developed is equally unfair. The study found that the agreement falls short in critical areas, particularly in failing to mobilize climate ambition particularly mitigation and climate finance to support the achievement of the 1.5˚C temperature goal and efforts to build adaptation and resilience of the most affected. These challenges significantly impede the efforts of LDCs to implement their ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), particularly in mitigation, which is almost entirely reliant on international cooperation and support. To bridge these gaps, the study is making recommendations for urgent reforms in the UNFCCC process that would ensure meaningful inclusion of LDCs and the successful achievement of global climate goals.