Macro-Level Modeling of Traffic Crash Fatalities at the Scene: Insights for Road Safety

This study applied 2019 macro-level data from DATASUS to model traffic fatalities at the scene. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and censored regression models (TOBIT) were the methodologies used to identify the significant variables explaining the occurrence of deaths on public roads due to crashes. The number of fatalities on public roadways was then modeled using a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network employing the significant variables as predictors according to the generalization capacity of complex predictive models. The OLS and TOBIT findings indicated that the variables motorcycles and scooters per capita, municipal human development index, and number of SUS emergency units were the most important for modeling traffic fatalities at the scene at the national and regional levels. Applying these variables, the neural network’s best results achieved a hit rate of 88% for Brazil and 95% for the Northeast model. The contribution of this study is providing an approach combining various methods and considering a range of variables influencing traffic fatalities at the scene. The findings offer insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners involved in road safety initiatives, mainly where crash data are scarce, and macro-level analysis is necessary.