The Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on the High-Quality Development of China’s Foreign Trade

The high-quality development of foreign trade is both an inherent need for China’s economic transformation and upgrading and a vital driver for global economic recovery and sustainable development. Analyzing how new quality productive forces empower high-quality trade development and its mechanisms is significant. Drawing from the theoretical framework of new quality productive forces and the principles of high-quality foreign trade development, this study uses panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2021) to construct entropy-based indices for new quality productive forces and the high-quality development of foreign trade. A System GMM dynamic panel model is applied to examine their relationship and underlying mechanisms. The empirical results indicate that new quality productive forces significantly promote the high-quality development of foreign trade. Furthermore, their positive impact is more pronounced in eastern regions, provinces implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, and areas with lower resource endowments. Mechanism analysis further reveals that new quality productive forces enhance the high-quality development of foreign trade by optimizing factor matching, deepening industrial division, and intensifying market competition. This study contributes to the literature on the economic effects of new quality productive forces and provides theoretical insights and practical implications for promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade across regions.