Travel confidence, constraints and behaviors of Chinese outbound tourists in the new normal: a longitudinal case study of Hong Kong

Purpose This study investigates (1) the influence of travel confidence and constraints, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on Chinese tourists’ travel intentions over various time frames and (2) how their intentions are actualized as actual behaviors in the new normal of Chinese outbound tourism through a longitudinal study using Hong Kong as the destination. Design/methodology/approach Self-administered questionnaires were delivered to Chinese tourists in the Greater Bay Area of mainland China. A two-stage data collection process was conducted, with 966 respondents in stage one (September 2023) and 493 respondents from the same cohort in stage two (April 2024). Findings The study’s findings showed that different combinations of five factors influenced respondents’ travel intentions across three time frames (short-, mid- and long-term). The model with actual behavior revealed a positive relationship between respondents’ travel intentions and actual behavior. Practical implications The findings of this study have significant practical implications for destination marketers aiming to attract Chinese outbound tourists and identify promotion campaigns in the new normal era of Chinese outbound tourism. Originality/value This study offers a fresh perspective by extending the theory of planned behavior (TPB) with travel confidence and constraints. It enriches theoretical development by combining TPB and temporal construal theory to explore the influence of temporal distance on tourists’ behaviors. Moreover, it contributes to travel behavior research by examining the intention-behavior relationship through a longitudinal approach.