Gamblers or Risk-Averse? Competitive Authoritarianism, the Centre–Periphery Cleavage and Nationalist Revisionism in Russia and Turkey

Revisionism is a growing phenomenon, particularly in imperial successor states. Which factors transform dissatisfied powers into nationalist revisionists? Our hypothesis is that this is determined by military capabilities as a necessary variable, the presence of an authoritarian regime as an enabling variable, and the centre-periphery cleavage as a driving factor. Comparing the most different cases of Russia and Turkey, we find that both presidents have concentrated the decision to resort to military force in their hands by bypassing or splitting the opposition. Whilst Russia appears as a gambler, Turkey has acted more risk-averse.