Numerical Estimation of Rice Harvest Growth in West Lombok regency Using Adam-Bashforth-Moulton Method

Abstract This research aims to estimate rice harvests up until the year 2027 to reduce rice imports. The method employed is a numerical multistep approach known as the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton (ABM) method. Before applying the ABM method, a fourth-order Runge-Kutta predictor is used. This method is applied to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation using the Verhulst growth model. Based on numerical simulation results, it was found that there will be an increase in rice harvests from 2024 to 2027. In 2027, the estimated rice harvest is projected to be 205,223.610446 tons, while the estimated annual harvest in 2024 is projected to be 193,839.312275 tons. The estimated rice harvest can be reported to the government and included in the national food security reserves.