Causes and temporal dynamics of mortality in wild birds from Colombia admitted for pathological diagnosis over 19 years: a forecasting analysis

Abstract Understanding wild avian mortality is crucial for effective population management and ex-situ care improvement. Despite Colombia’s status as a global hotspot for bird biodiversity, epidemiological data on mortality causes and trends remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate avian mortality causes, trends, and forecast future deaths of birds admitted to the Avian Pathology Laboratory (LPA) at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia. A 19-year dataset (2004–2023) from LPA was analyzed to identify significant mortality causes and trends based on disease categories, temporal dynamics, sex, and age. Forecasting analyses were conducted. A total of 726 wild birds from 100 genera, including 20 orders, were analyzed, with Psittaciformes (27.5%) and Strigiformes (19.8%) being the most frequent. Adults were more affected (70.6%, P = 0.03), with 1.87-times fold greater odds of death than among young birds ( P = 0.006; IC = 1.87; 1.19–2.92). Overall, 63.2% of birds were diagnosed with infectious diseases. Time-series analysis revealed increased mortalities in February, March ( P < 0.05), and September ( P < 0.001), with variations by disease category, age, sex, and taxonomic group. From 2016 to 2023, deaths showed an increasing trend (APC = 26.8% per year; 95% CI = 3.62 to 55.23; P < 0.05). The SARIMA model predicted a rise in overall mortality in March, July, and November of 2024, with increased mortality due to infectious diseases in July and among males in September. The study’s findings underscore the predominance of seasonal infectious diseases and highlight the need for further surveillance and analysis of temporal variations, contributing to improved wildlife disease management and forecasting.