Predicting the spread of invasive Imperata cylindrica under climate change: A global risk assessment and future distribution scenarios

Invasive plant species, such as Imperata cylindrica (cogongrass), threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and lands worldwide. With climate change, the risk of invasions may increase as more favorable conditions enable non-native species to spread into new areas. This study employs the CLIMEX model to predict the potential distribution of I. cylindrica under current and future climate scenarios, under the SRES A2 scenario. A comprehensive dataset comprising 6,414 occurrence records was used to simulate the species' ecological niche based on key climatic parameters, including temperature and soil moisture. Our results indicate that more than 16% of the global land surface is currently highly suitable for I. cylindrica (Ecoclimatic Index ≥ 30), with significant risk areas identified in Central America, Africa, and Australia. Future projections under the A2 scenario suggest an expansion of suitable habitats by 2050, 2080, and 2100, particularly in regions such as southern Argentina and parts of North America, while areas in Africa may experience a decrease in suitability due to rising temperatures. Sensitivity analysis revealed that temperature-related parameters (DV0, DV1, DV2, and DV3) are the most influential in determining the species' distribution, highlighting the critical role of climate in driving the invasive potential of I. cylindrica. These findings provide valuable insights into the future risks associated with I. cylindrica invasions.