WRF-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Microphysics Schemes: Case study of Cyclone Gulab

This work presents extensive sensitivity analyses of microphysical parameterization schemes within the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW core) model to enhance tropical cyclone predictions. A case study of Cyclone Gulab is chosen for September 24, 2021 which originated over the Bay of Bengal. For all simulations, initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Final (NCEP FNL) reanalysis data. The study employed four distinct microphysics schemes: WRF Single Moment 6 (WSM6), WRF Double Moment (WDM), Thompson, and Kessler. The results of these simulations were validated against ERA5 reanalysis data. Among the tested microphysics schemes, the Thompson scheme consistently provided the highest accuracy, with correlation values exceeding 0.6 across all variables and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). In contrast, the Kessler scheme showed lower overall performance. The insights gained from this study are expected to contribute to improved tropical cyclone prediction and model accuracy, particularly in the context of microphysics parameterization schemes.