Climatic Variability Analysis over Lower Ganga River Basin Using a Non-Parametrical Approach and Machine Learning Models and its Impact

This study assesses the change in climatic parameter over the Lower Ganga River Basin from 1984 to 2023 considering rainfall and temperature data. Using gridded data and historical records, trends were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope, while change points were identified using Sequential Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests. Land use/land cover changes were examined using MLH, RF, and SVM with Landsat images processed via Google Earth Engine, with SVM showing the highest accuracy. Future climate scenarios (2021-2030) predicted increased temperatures and decreased rainfall. These changes are expected to affect agricultural productivity, streamflow, groundwater recharge, vegetation cover, and water supply. The study underscores the need for adaptive management and proactive planning to address these anticipated impacts.