Deciphering Earthquake Precursors: Unraveling the Nexus of Thermal Anomalies, Seismic Activity, and Satellite Data in Ladakh

On September 25, 2020, an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 struck Leh, Ladakh, causing significant tremors but no reported fatalities. This study examines the Total Electron Content (TEC) and Thermal Anomalies leading up to the earthquake, highlighting their potential as earthquake precursors. The analysis revealed that both anomalies appeared before the seismic event: the TEC anomaly was detected approximately 20 days prior and again a day before the earthquake, while the thermal anomaly showed a significant rise three weeks before, with peaks on September 2nd, 22nd, and 24th. Using remote sensing and GIS tools, these datasets were processed to identify patterns in the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and TEC values. The LST analysis involved calculating daily mean temperatures and comparing them to historical data to establish a baseline. Significant deviations from this baseline were interpreted as thermal anomalies. Similarly, TEC anomalies were identified using a 14 -day running median and interquartile range to establish upper and lower bounds. The results showed a clear correlation between these anomalies and the earthquake, reinforcing the hypothesis that such geophysical and atmospheric changes are precursors to seismic activity.