Electric Load Forecasting of Railway Enterprises Using the ARIMA Model

For sustainable operation of railway transport enterprises, taking into account environmental challenges and fluctuations in resource prices, optimizing energy efficiency is becoming a key priority. This includes not only the selection of energy-efficient equipment, but also the use of innovative technologies to reduce energy consumption, as well as forecasting methods. The article discusses the use of the ARIMA model to forecast the electricity consumption of a non-transportation enterprise of JSC Russian Railways. Forecasting was carried out based on hourly electricity consumption data for 1 year. It was found that the discrepancy between the modeled and actual electricity consumption at the facilities of JSC Russian Railways in some cases exceeds 20%. Therefore, the relevance of the study lies in the fact that forecasting using the ARIMA model will improve the efficiency of operational management of electricity consumption processes. The purpose of the study is to forecast the electricity consumption of a non-transportation enterprise of JSC Russian Railways using the ARIMA model. The study found that the ARIMA model is applicable to forecasting electricity consumption in the short term - for 1 day.