“Managing multiple and long-term crises: Post-pandemic urban development dynamics and policy capacity in Wrocław, Poland“

Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic can have long-term societal-economic consequences for local communities. In Poland, the effects of the health crisis, combined with the affordable housing crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, amplify pre-existing trends in demographics and migration. As decentralisation remains the dominant trajectory of Polish cities, large urban agglomerations such as Wrocław continue to grow while experiencing shrinkage in inner-city areas. Since 2022, the context for the early post-pandemic period in Poland has been characterised by the interplay of multiple crises (polycrises), including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. The influx of Ukrainian refugees helped alleviate labour shortages in the largest cities but also amplified the shortcomings of underdeveloped rental markets. This study focuses on the polycrisis effects using the city of Wrocław as a showcase. Based on a mixed-method approach including stakeholder interviews, we demonstrate that post-pandemic changes are likely to have long-term effects on the socio-spatial composition of the city and overall city resilience, creating agglomerated policy challenges for both local and national-level authorities. The paper argues that local authorities, acting within a national policy framework that tends to be more opportunity- than strategy-driven, have not been capable of providing a comprehensive response to the emerging social processes and changing spatial structures. Instead, sectoral and fragmented responses prevailed, resulting in partially diverging societal outcomes. • Socio-spatial effects of COVID-19 & policy in Wrocław amid housing & refugee crises • Mixed-methods: quantitative census data & qualitative policymaker interviews • Post-pandemic suburbanization by young middle-class families intensifies • Fragmented policies fail to address social & spatial changes in polycrisis context • Metropolitan cooperation & strategic planning needed for spatial & housing issues