Connecting growth and yield models to continuous forest inventory data to better account for uncertainty

Models of forest growth and yield are frequently used to inform adaptive management decisions aimed at increasing forest resilience or promoting long-term carbon storage. Despite the increasing ecological detail represented in growth and yield models, there remains large variability (uncertainty) in predictions of forest dynamics under global change. Quantifying this uncertainty and accounting for it when making management decisions is integral to sustainable management in the face of changing conditions. However, the structure and complexity of modern growth and yield models make it challenging to quantify uncertainty and propagate it to predictions of forest dynamics under alternative management strategies. To address this challenge, we develop a Bayesian dynamical model informed by continuous forest inventory data that supports the quantification and propagation of uncertainty in predictions of forest dynamics at a stand scale. The model predicts the temporal evolution of the size-species distribution using a matrix projection process model approximating growth, mortality, and regeneration. Disturbance is integrated through its effect on the size-species distribution within a stand providing a flexible framework to represent adaptive management. We apply the model to long-term inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Maine USA to predict multi-decadal biomass dynamics under five alternative management strategies. Predictions are used to identify the management strategy maximizing live aboveground biomass growth and yield over the model period. We conclude by discussing the benefits and challenges of connecting the model to large-scale inventory data and how its predictions can be used to better inform adaptive management decisions. • Forest responses to adaptive management are uncertain under global change. • A Bayesian growth and yield model is developed to better account for uncertainty. • Model leverages forest inventory data to predict outcomes of adaptive management. • Predictions reflect uncertainty in demographic processes, parameters, and data. • Model is applied to predict biomass dynamics under alternative management approaches.