Resource and emission savings from material efficiency strategies for passenger vehicles in China’s provinces

Decarbonizing China’s passenger vehicle sector is crucial for carbon neutrality goals. While electrification alone may not suffice due to scope 3 emissions, material efficiency (ME) represents a complementary pillar. However, ME’s overall benefits across China’s provinces remain unclear. This study applied the RECC model to estimate nine ME strategies’ impacts on bulk material production and GHG emissions across 31 provinces from 2023 to 2050. Results show the national vehicle fleet size will increase to 415–579 million units by 2050, depending on socio-economic scenarios. Ambitious ME strategies and lower mobility demand will save 2023–2050 cumulative primary material production by 1055 Mt. Low-carbon energy supply and ME strategies could enable China to meet its 2030 peak targets under high mobility demand and reduce emissions to 423 Mt by 2050. Notably, the southwest region would experience a greater GHG reduction from ME strategies than coastal regions, primarily driven by ride-sharing and vehicle downsizing.