Just social-ecological tipping scales: A mid-range social theory of change in coal and carbon intensive regions

• The JSETS framework applied in CCIRs explores regional systemic change by identifying and anticipating transition states. • 5 transition states are: 1&2 high carbon and declining mainstream, 3&4 growing and reinforced low carbon system, and 5 transformed just region. • The 19 CCIRs fell under the first 4 transition states but there was no evidence of regions in the last transformed just region state. • The JSETS framework deconstruct elements that enable/impede transitions by identifying actors and key triggering factors. • Regions moving across transition states need to consider distributional, procedural, recognition, restorative and epistemic justice. Energy transitions are often studied using socio-technical transitions, just transitions and more recently, social-ecological tipping points (SETPs). While they can be important starting points for conceptualising large-scale systemic change, when applied within a regional context, they often fail to appropriately explain change. SETP concept is receiving increasing attention, but its heuristic value still requires further empirical validation. While many energy transitions are still in a pre-tipping point phase, the lack of empirically validated tipping points raises a question of applicability if these frameworks are unable to capture change at the regional scale. In this paper, we introduce a new inductive framework, Just Social-Ecological Tipping Scales (JSETS), based on cross-case analysis in coal and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs). The framework helps understanding systemic change in regional contexts by identifying transition states. We then analyse traits in these transition states by assessing enablers and barriers of triggering factors and actors over temporal and spatial scales as well as justice dimensions. This analysis helps us to identify cumulate changes leading to four tipping scales, which can move a region from one transition state to another. By identifying both transition states and tipping scales, we can anticipate the potential traits needed for a CCIR to move towards a just transformation.