Identification of drivers of change of emerging food safety risks in Europe

The presence of food safety hazards in the food supply chain is influenced, either positively or negatively, by drivers of change within and beyond the food system. Insight into the importance of these drivers to emerging risks and linked food safety hazards, and their management potential, is crucial for allocating resources effectively in managing food safety. The aim of this study is to identify drivers of change affecting food safety in Europe. To identify the drivers of change, first hazard categories are created from RASFF reports and, second, a literature review using these categories is conducted. Then, inductive coding of the literature review results, and semi structured expert interviews are used to condense the driver of change list, and drivers are categorized as social, technological, economic, environmental or political (STEEP). Finally, a hazard identification is conducted with an expert survey. Per driver of change, experts are tasked to identify the most associated hazard and the degree of association. from the literature review identify 39 drivers of change, organized into 11 main drivers of change with 3 to 5 subdrivers per main driver. The main drivers consist of 3 social drivers: consumer behavior, demographic development, health and wellbeing; 2 technological drivers: technologies in food production, technologies in food processing; 1 economic driver: supply chain; 3 environmental drivers: environmental contamination, management of (natural) resources, bioprocesses; and 2 political drivers: legislation, policies and governance, and finally geopolitical instability. The hazard identification shows that across the board all drivers have a relative strong association with pathogenic bacteria. Most drivers are associated with all hazards in varying degrees and for each driver there is one or more above strong hazard association. The drivers geopolitical instability, demographic development and consumer behavior have overall the weakest associations with the hazard categories. The drivers environmental contamination, legislation, policies and governance, and bioprocesses have overall the strongest associations. Study results provide insights into the drivers of change affecting the European food system. Results can be used by governmental and policy risk managers to attune their resource allocation. This is a crucial part for ensuring effective food safety management in the future. • Both biological and chemical hazards are included • 11 main drivers of change are identified. • Drivers of change originate from known hazards. • All the drivers are strongly associated with pathogenic bacteria. • Hazard identification gives insight into effective driver management.