The Climates and Thermal Emission Spectra of Prime Nearby Temperate Rocky Exoplanet Targets

Abstract Over the course of the past decade, advances in radial velocity and transit techniques have enabled the detection of rocky exoplanets in the habitable zones of nearby stars. Future observations with novel methods are required to characterize this sample of planets, especially those that are nontransiting. One proposed method is the Planetary Infrared Excess (PIE) technique, which would enable the characterization of nontransiting planets by measuring the excess IR flux from the planet relative to the star’s spectral energy distribution. In this work, we predict the efficacy of future observations using the PIE technique by potential future observatories such as the MIRECLE mission concept. To do so, we conduct a broad suite of 21 general circulation model (GCM) simulations, with ExoCAM, of seven nearby habitable zone targets for three choices of atmospheric composition with varying partial pressure of CO 2 . We then construct thermal phase curves and emission spectra by post-processing our ExoCAM GCM simulations with the Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that all cases have distinguishable carbon dioxide and water features assuming a 90° orbital inclination. Notably, we predict that CO 2 is potentially detectable at 15 μ m with MIRECLE for at least four nearby known nontransiting rocky planet candidate targets in the habitable zone: Proxima Centauri b, GJ 1061 d, GJ 1002 b, and Teegarden’s Star c. Our ExoCAM GCMs and PSG post-processing demonstrate the potential to observationally characterize nearby nontransiting rocky planets and better constrain the potential for habitability in our solar neighborhood.