Predicting Melt Pond Coverage on Arctic Sea Ice From Pre‐Melt Surface Topography

Abstract Sea‐ice melt ponds form in the depressions of pre‐melt surface topography, a process widely accepted yet lacking larger‐scale evaluation through explicit comparisons. During MOSAiC, we collected multi‐dimensional aerial data to examine the relationship between pre‐melt surface topography and melt pond evolution across an entire Arctic ice floe. Using hydrological models, we analyze the correlation between potential meltwater accumulation areas identified in winter and spring topographies, available meltwater, and observed pond coverage. Our findings demonstrate a strong connection, revealing a 72% accuracy in matching low areas to melt ponds, with 98% of basins deeper than 0.5 m transforming into ponds. Incorporating assumptions regarding meltwater availability improve predictions of melt pond fraction and highlight key factors driving extensive lateral runoff networks on the floe. No significant differences are observed between first‐ and second‐year ice. This study provides valuable ground truth for future modeling and measurements of pond formation.