Quantifying the Impact of Vegetation Greening on Evapotranspiration and Its Components on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) serves as a vital ecological safeguard and water conservation region in China. In recent decades, substantial efforts have been made to promote vegetation greening across the TP; however, these interventions have added complexity to the local water balance and evapotranspiration (ET) processes. To investigate these dynamics, we apply the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model to simulate ET components in the TP. Through model sensitivity experiments, we isolate the contribution of vegetation greening to ET variations. Furthermore, we analyze the role of climatic drivers on ET using a suite of statistical techniques. Based on satellite and climate data from 1982 to 2018, we found the following: (1) The PT-JPL model successfully captured ET trends over the TP, revealing increasing trends in total ET, canopy transpiration, interception loss, and soil evaporation at rates of 0.06, 0.39, 0.005, and 0.07 mm/year, respectively. The model’s performance was validated using eddy covariance observations from three flux tower sites, yielding R2 values of 0.81–0.86 and RMSEs ranging from 6.31 to 13.20 mm/month. (2) Vegetation greening exerted a significant enhancement on ET, with the mean annual ET under greening scenarios (258.6 ± 120.9 mm) being 2.9% greater than under non-greening scenarios (251.2 ± 157.2 mm) during 1982–2018. (3) Temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the dominant controls on ET, influencing 53.5% and 23% of the region, respectively, as identified consistently by both multiple linear regression and dominant factor analyses. These findings highlight the net influence of vegetation greening and offer valuable guidance for water management and sustainable ecological restoration efforts in the region.