Beyond trade-offs in China’s vegetation-economy dynamics

Effectively achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) alongside climate change adaptation and mitigation actions requires recognizing synergies and trade-offs among various targets. The relationship between vegetation conservation and economic development is complex and context-dependent across different regions and scales, and the lack of long-term and large-scale data remains a challenge in fully verifying this relationship. Existing area-based vegetation conservation metrics did not account for the ecological heterogeneity of vegetation zones. We proposed a zonal vegetation ratio to measure the extent of conservation of zonal vegetation, defined as the proportion of zonal vegetation area to the total area within a region. We analyzed the relationship of the zonal vegetation ratio with economic levels and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) using three decades of data from more than 2,000 rural counties ( ∼ 94.1% of the total land area) in China. Although the zonal vegetation ratio showed negative correlations with per area economic indicators and NPP nationally, variations occurred across vegetation zones. The relationship was mutually beneficial in the desert and alpine zones, which suggested that vegetation conservation and economic growth could coexist under certain conditions. After controlling for individual and temporal effects, the zonal vegetation ratio positively impacted fiscal revenue. Dynamic panel analyses suggested a potential positive causal link between the zonal vegetation ratio and fiscal revenue, although unobserved external factors limited causal certainty. These findings advocate for context-specific policies to align vegetation conservation and economic development. They highlight the need for further research to validate causal relationships and inform policy formulation. • Zonal vegetation ratio was negatively correlated with per area economic indicators. • The relationship between vegetation and economy varied across vegetation zones. • Zonal vegetation ratio positively impacted revenue after controlling for confounders.