Social media campaigning and voter behavior–evidence for the German federal election 2021

We analyze the relationship between party campaigning on social media and the voting intentions voiced by respondents in a large representative survey in the German federal election campaign in 2021. We argue that online campaigns spread through the online and offline networks of the initial recipients – thereby influencing substantial parts of the electorate. We exploit inter-temporal, inter-regional, and inter-party differences in the intensity of campaigning by parties and candidates on Facebook and Twitter. In addition, we control for the respondents’ choice in the previous federal election and a number of other personal characteristics. Using a multinomial logit model with alternative-specific constants, we find the probability of a respondent’s intention to vote for a party to increase in the state-specific campaigning activities on social media of this party the days before. While the literature suggests that especially populist right-wing parties will benefit from campaigning on social media, we find the marginal impact to be significantly higher for Christian democrats, Social Democrats, and Greens than for the right-wing “Alternative für Deutschland”. • We analyze the impact of social media campaigns on voting intentions in the German federal election 2021. • Voting intentions are taken from the representative FORSA survey (n > 14.000). • We use a multinomial logit model with alternative-specific constants to model voters’ choice. • We exploit inter-temporal, -regional and -party differences in campaigning intensity on Facebook and Twitter. • Respondents’ intention to vote for a certain party increase in the party’s state-specific campaigning intensity the days before. • The marginal impact is lower for the right-wing “Alternative für Deutschland” than for other parties.