Sowing resilience: quantifying the role of American crops in mitigating Malthusian catastrophes during climatic extremes in history

Abstract Previous large-N quantitative research on the historical human-environment nexus has primarily emphasized the negative impacts of climate change on social stability, economic development, and the collapse of civilizations. In contrast, this study seeks to provide a statistical analysis of the resilience mechanisms that human societies have historically employed to adapt to and mitigate adverse environmental conditions. Agricultural development, as a crucial component of social resilience, has played a pivotal role in enabling societies to absorb climate-induced subsistence pressures. We systematically examine how introducing American crops mitigated the relationship between climatic extremes—specifically floods and droughts—and Malthusian catastrophes such as famines and wars during the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China. By collecting and analyzing records of four high-yield American crops—maize, peanuts, sweet potatoes, and potatoes—from 3071 local chronicles across 236 prefectures, we employ the spatial Durbin model to evaluate both the direct and spillover effects of these crops during hydroclimatic extremes quantitatively to see how they contributed to social resilience. Our statistical results indicate that introducing these American crops had significant mitigating effects on Malthusian catastrophes during climate extremes, with varying impacts among the different crops. Maize and peanuts were particularly effective in reducing wars during floods, while peanuts, sweet potatoes, and potatoes tended to alleviate famines during droughts. Regional comparison reveals that these catastrophe-mitigating effects were more pronounced in the south-western mountainous zone and that spatial spillover effects were more significant in the central-eastern rice cultivation zone. These findings underscore the importance of agricultural development in enhancing social resilience to climatic extremes. By highlighting the regionally varying catastrophe-mitigating effects of specific crops, our study provides valuable insights into the adaptive capacities of human societies to climate variability. This contributes to a more nuanced and context-sensitive understanding of the human-environment nexus.