Anthropogenic factors in a forest and peatland fire danger rating system in South Sumatra

Abstract In an effort to prevent forest and land fires, Indonesia has implemented its fire danger rating system (FDRS). Currently, the FDRS is based upon the Canadian system, which is driven by only weather parameters. However, fires in Indonesia are primarily caused by human activities with most of them occurring on peatlands. Thus, it is necessary to integrate these factors in the development of the next generation FDRS to increase the precision and accuracy in assessing levels of fire danger in various Indonesian regions. This study presents a proof of concept for a new FDRS, applied in forest and peatland in Ogan Komering Ilir (OKI) District, South Sumatra Province, based on three parameters: weather, anthropogenic factors and presence or absence of peat. The anthropogenic and peatland FDRS (AP-FDRS) map was produced using a spatial logistic regression method for incorporating anthropogenic and peat models, using the fire weather index (FWI) model from forest and land fire early warning system together with an overlay method to produce a composite map of forest and peatland fire. In this study, 2 d in 2020 were selected as sample dates: one with hotspot occurrences (23 August 2020) and one without hotspots (28 December 2020). On 23 August 2020, the AP-FDRS map was dominated by high (54%) and extreme (46%) fire hazard levels after combining high FWI values with extreme AP risks in the OKI District. In contrast, on 28 December 2020, although the FWI indicated low fire risk, the integration with AP factors resulted in an AP-FDRS map dominated by medium (34%) and high (60%) fire hazard levels. These results highlight that weather factors alone are not sufficient to predict fire hazard risks in Indonesia. Therefore, the AP-FDRS provides more detailed and accurate predictions compared to current FWI based systems.