Energy-food interconnectedness in Africa: A dynamic analysis of price transmission and the roles of logistics efficiency and food self-sufficiency

Despite extensive research on the energy-food market nexus, few studies quantitatively assess how international energy prices impact local food prices in Africa. This study employs a unique approach, integrating a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with regression analysis, to investigate these dynamics across 12 African nations. Key findings reveal that external global factors significantly affect local food prices, regardless of whether a country is landlocked or has seaport access. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian war exert diverse impacts on food prices, underscoring Africa's vulnerabilities and varied responses to global disruptions. Furthermore, the Logistics Performance Index is identified as a critical factor amplifying the transmission of global energy prices to local food markets, while food self-sufficiency appears ineffective in mitigating these effects. These insights highlight the complex interplay between energy and food markets in Africa and suggest important implications for policymakers aiming to enhance food security amid global economic shocks. • Combines TVP-VAR and regression to analyze energy-food price links in Africa. • COVID-19 and Russo-Ukrainian war effects on food prices vary across Africa. • Logistics performance amplifies global energy price impacts on local food markets. • Food self-sufficiency offers limited protection from global energy price changes.