Climate proofing maize through optimizing manure fertilization

Optimizing nitrogen fertilizers use can improve maize yields, soil fertility, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions, but it remains uncertain as to what impact it will continue to have in the context of ongoing climatic changes. In this research, we use long-term field experimental data and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model to evaluate the impact of combining manure with chemical fertilizers on spring maize yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) content, and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. Using four future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) based on Global Climate Models (GCMs), the APSIM model showed climate change will reduce the maize yield and SOC content compared to the preceding decade. Increasing manure use could mitigate the decrease in maize yield and SOC content under future climate scenarios in contrast to current practices, however, this would in all climate scenarios promote nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. Evaluating crop productivity, soil health, environmental impact, and economic considerations, this study recommends replacing 50% of the nitrogen in farmers’ conventional chemical fertilization practices with manure (RFP0.5) as the optimal approach. This approach is a perfect balance which effectively mitigates maize yields and SOC loss in response to future climate change, while also addressing greenhouse gas emissions. • Future climate negatively impacted maize yield and SOC content of farmers’ chemical nitrogen fertilization practices by 7% and 14%, respectively. • Replacing half chemical nitrogen with manure can effectively mitigate maize yield and SOC content loss, while could well balance crop productivity, soil health, environmental impact, and economic benefits. • Manure input can effectively mitigate maize yield (11%) and SOC content (26%) loss in response to future climate change.