An increase in global daily precipitation records in response to global warming based on reanalysis and observations

<ns3:p>Understanding trends in extreme precipitation events in the context of global warming is critical for assessing climate change impacts. This study employs a novel methodology developed by Giorgi and Ciarlo (2022) to analyze record-breaking daily precipitation events from 1980 to 2020, utilizing three reanalysis products (ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55) and one global observation dataset (MSWEP). Our results indicate a consistent and statistically significant increase in record-breaking precipitation events globally, with variations across different latitude bands and between land and ocean areas. This trend is evident in all datasets, with the most substantial increases observed over oceans in ERA5 and over land in JRA and MERRA. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere shows mixed results, with some regions displaying negative trends. This study highlights the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events, supporting the hypothesis of intensified hydrological cycles under a warming climate. Our findings enhance understanding of precipitation extremes and underscore the importance of regional analyses in climate impact studies. Future work could extend these findings to formal attribution studies linking observed trends directly to anthropogenic climate change.</ns3:p>

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Open Research Europe
Published
2025-05-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.17674.3
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

An increase in global daily precipitation records in response to global warming based on reanalysis and observations

James Ciarlo, Filippo Giorgi
Open Research Europe
Climate variability and models
article

An increase in global daily precipitation records in response to global warming based on reanalysis and observations

James Ciarlo, Filippo Giorgi
article en

Abstract

<ns3:p>Understanding trends in extreme precipitation events in the context of global warming is critical for assessing climate change impacts. This study employs a novel methodology developed by Giorgi and Ciarlo (2022) to analyze record-breaking daily precipitation events from 1980 to 2020, utilizing three reanalysis products (ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55) and one global observation dataset (MSWEP). Our results indicate a consistent and statistically significant increase in record-breaking precipitation events globally, with variations across different latitude bands and between land and ocean areas. This trend is evident in all datasets, with the most substantial increases observed over oceans in ERA5 and over land in JRA and MERRA. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere shows mixed results, with some regions displaying negative trends. This study highlights the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events, supporting the hypothesis of intensified hydrological cycles under a warming climate. Our findings enhance understanding of precipitation extremes and underscore the importance of regional analyses in climate impact studies. Future work could extend these findings to formal attribution studies linking observed trends directly to anthropogenic climate change.</ns3:p>

Open Research EuropeVol. 4
HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
Openalex Percentile: Top 90%
Climate variability and models
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An increase in global daily precipitation records in response to global warming based on reanalysis and observations — James Ciarlo, Filippo Giorgi · Open Research Europe (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS