The Dynamic of Terrorism and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria: An Analytical Framework for Unemployment, Literacy and Terror Incident Production

Abstract: This study investigates the socio-economic determinants of terrorism in Nigeria, focusing on the interplay between unemployment, literacy, and socio-economic conditions as they relate to terror incidents. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates Chi-square analysis and Elastic Net Regression (ENR) to analyze data collected from 1,537 respondents via structured questionnaires. Key findings reveal a significant correlation between high unemployment rates, particularly among youth, and increased occurrences of terrorism, aligning with Strain Theory. The study also highlights the critical role of literacy in mitigating radicalization; lower literacy rates correlate with heightened susceptibility to extremist ideologies. Additionally, socio-economic inequalities, including poverty and income disparity, are identified as significant factors exacerbating security challenges, supporting Relative Deprivation Theory. Temporal and spatial dynamics reveal that certain regions and times are more prone to violence, necessitating targeted counter-terrorism strategies. The effectiveness of government policies is critically examined, showing that inadequate policies can perpetuate grievances and violence, emphasizing the need for evidence-based interventions. The ENR model provides actionable insights into the relationships between socio-economic factors and terrorism, demonstrating that integrated approaches addressing economic, educational, and social dimensions are essential for effective counter-terrorism efforts. However, the study is limited by its reliance on self-reported data, which may introduce bias, and its focus on Nigeria, potentially limiting generalizability. Overall, this research underscores the necessity for comprehensive strategies that tackle the root causes of terrorism in Nigeria, fostering sustainable peace and development.