Projections of Agricultural Product Exports and Their Impacts on Rural Development

Food security and sustainable development are among the critical issues of today. Addressing these challenges requires a focus on sectors that can simultaneously ensure food availability and foster sustainable progress. In this context, the agricultural sector serves as a driving force for both rural development and economic growth by enhancing productivity, promoting export-oriented strategies. This study examines Turkey's agricultural products' foreign trade situation, focusing on export-oriented development strategies. The research analyzes agricultural products' import and export data from the years between 2000 to 2023, obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The data consist of nine product groups within Chapters 06-14 of Section 2 of the Customs Tariff Schedule. Using statistical methods, including the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Trend tests, the study investigates foreign trade trends and makes future projections. The results indicate that there is a general upward trend in exports. Export surpluses are expected in product groups such as live trees and other plants, vegetables, fruits, milling products, oilseeds, and vegetable materials for knitting. However, deficits persist in groups such as tea, coffee, spices, cereals, and lacquers, gums, and resins, where imports exceed exports. The most important export product group with the highest surplus is fruit, whereas the highest deficit ratio is observed in cereals. Based on the result of analysis, increasing Turkey's agricultural export performance holds strategic importance for rural development and economic growth. Therefore, reducing import dependency and promoting domestic production are essential for sustainable development in the agricultural sector. Additionally, supporting product groups with competitive advantages in agricultural exports and expanding their market share are recommended. The adoption of modern agricultural techniques, the training of farmers, and the development of rural infrastructure will also contribute to the sustainable growth of the sector and, in turn, support rural development. Structural transformation policies and improvements in the agricultural sector will contribute significantly to strengthening local economies and ensuring national economic stability by encouraging rural development.