Analisis komparatif metode dekomposisi aditif dan multiplikatif dalam memprediksi penjualan pada industri fashion

Sales forecasting is very important, especially for businesses engaged in the fashion sector to make strategic decisions. This study aims to compare the additive and multiplicative decomposition methods in forecasting the sales of couple prayer mats at Elora Fashion. The dataset used consists of monthly sales data from January 2021 to September 2024. Through decomposition methods, the analysis was conducted to observe changes in trends, seasonal components, cycles, and random variations. The trend analysis indicated a rising sales pattern. The highest seasonal index occurred in June, while the lowest was in February. The sales forecast for the period from October to December 2024 predicts an increase in October and December, with a decline in November. The results show that decomposition methods are effective in identifying trend and seasonal patterns, which can support inventory optimization and marketing strategies. The comparative study between the Additive and Multiplicative Decomposition methods did not show significant differences. However, the Additive Decomposition method was considered superior due to its lower MAPE value.