Comparative Analysis and Forecast of Electricity and Heat Energy Tariff Dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic in the Context of Global Trends and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Research Objective: In the context of a rapidly evolving global energy landscape, this study focuses on analyzing and forecasting electricity and heat energy tariff dynamics in the Kyrgyz Republic for the period 2020–2030. The research considers international energy transition trends through the lens of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7 – Affordable and Clean Energy, and SDG 13 – Climate Action). Theoretical Framework: The study is grounded in the principles of energy economics and sustainable development, emphasizing how global shifts—declining generation costs, accelerated adoption of renewables, and stricter climate commitments—affect national tariff policy. It examines the interplay between technological progress, international decarbonization requirements, and Kyrgyzstan’s socio-economic conditions. Methodology: The analysis uses statistical data from national and international sources (IEA, IRENA) for 2020–2024. Forecasts through 2030 are based on linear interpolation adjusted for inflation, technological diffusion, and potential regulatory changes. Results and Discussion: Despite the global decline in renewable energy generation costs, Kyrgyzstan faces rising domestic tariffs due to aging infrastructure, increasing operational expenses, and reliance on climate-sensitive hydropower. Nevertheless, solar power is becoming increasingly viable, especially in southern regions. Scientific and Practical Significance: The findings highlight the need to revise tariff policies with a focus on sustainable development and investment in renewable energy infrastructure. Originality and Value: The article offers a comprehensive perspective on tariff formation in Kyrgyzstan within the context of global climate challenges and national energy strategy, contributing valuable insights for energy policymakers and researchers.