Modeling Dependence Structures in Hydrodynamic Landslide Deformation via Hierarchical Archimedean Copula Framework: Case Study of the Donglinxin Landslide

This study proposes a hierarchical Archimedean copula (HAC) framework to model the complex dependence structures in hydrodynamic landslide deformations, with a focus on the Donglinxin (DLX) landslide. Hierarchical Archimedean copulas, compared to elliptical copulas, offer greater flexibility by requiring fewer parameters while maintaining broader applicability. The HAC model, combined with pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE), is applied to analyze the interdependencies among the landslide-related variables, such as monthly displacement increments, reservoir water level fluctuations, groundwater variations, and precipitation. A case study of the DLX landslide demonstrates the model’s ability to quantify the critical aspects of landslide deformation, including variable correlations, risk thresholds, conditional probabilities, and return periods. The analysis reveals a strong hierarchical dependence between monthly displacement increments and reservoir water level drops. The model also provides valuable insights into the potential risk factors, helping to optimize landslide monitoring and early-warning systems for more effective disaster mitigation.