Methodological aspects of assessing the economic attractiveness of participa-tion in climate projects for reforestation and afforestation on forest lands

In modern conditions, one of the tasks is to maintain the carbon balance on the planet. This goal can be achieved by participating in climate projects. The authors hypothesized that the correlation between the volume of planned costs for the organization and implementation of a climate project at a specific forest fund site and the value of the resulting carbon units determines the attractiveness of a particular site for the implementation of climate projects. The article substantiates that the expediency of participating in a climate project on a specific site is determined by its economic attractiveness, which is defined as the ratio of profitability and the value of the key refinancing rate. In accordance with the tools of Game Theory, an assessment of possible investment strategies in climate projects was carried out and an algorithm for making an optimal management decision on participation in a climate project in a specific area of the forest fund was proposed from the standpoint of the principle of "dominant strategy". A structural and component analysis of the process of forming the attractiveness of investing in climate projects using the Bayes-Laplace criterion is carried out and a geometric interpretation of its results is given for various options for the ratio of profitability of participation in climate projects and the key refinancing rate. Based on the formed predictive model, the parameters of break–even participation in climate projects are determined - it is advisable to participate with a business yield of more than 8.28%.