Monitoring Water Area Dynamics in Kashgar (2003–2023) Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

Understanding the dynamics of regional water area changes is crucial for effective water resource management and ecological conservation, particularly in arid regions. Located in northwestern China’s arid zone, changes in water area in Kashgar significantly impact local agricultural productivity, ecological integrity, and human socioeconomic activities. However, long-term trends in water area changes and their driving factors in Kashgar remain poorly understood. This study leverages Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery from 2003 to 2023, employing a random forest algorithm to extract water body information. Key findings are as follows: (1) both total and seasonal water area exhibit a fluctuating downward trend, while permanent water area displays a fluctuating upward trend; (2) precipitation and temperature emerged as primary drivers of water area changes, with precipitation in the surrounding regions of Kashgar exerting a particularly significant influence, while evaporation exhibited a lesser impact; (3) the influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities in surrounding areas on water area changes in Kashgar cannot be overlooked.