Resource nationalism and the new oil wars: Analyzing conflict dynamics across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East

This study investigates the intersection of resource nationalist policies state efforts to capture a greater share of oil and mineral rents and violent conflict in global hotspots. Through a qualitative comparative case study approach, recent incidents in oil-rich regions across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are analyzed, focusing on how aggressive resource policies have provoked internal or external disputes. Cases include Nigeria's Niger Delta militancy, Venezuela's expropriations and its 2023 Guyana dispute, Libya's oil terminal standoffs, and Iraq's Kurdistan oil conflict. Sharp rises in commodity prices frequently trigger nationalist policies such as nationalization, increased royalties, and local content requirements. When combined with high oil dependence and weak governance, these shifts generate economic disruptions and grievances that escalate into conflict. For instance, Venezuela's populist expropriations during a global oil boom contributed to long-term economic collapse and regional instability. The conceptual model illustrates how exogenous shocks (e.g., price spikes, sanctions) lead to resource-nationalist policies, which interact with governance quality and social tensions, generating feedback loops of instability. The findings suggest that unless paired with inclusive governance and transparent revenue-sharing, resource nationalism can heighten economic and security tensions in fragile states. Policymakers must balance sovereignty with institutional resilience to avoid fueling new "oil wars."