New trends in earthquake prediction – A case study of AI performance

The short term earthquake prediction problem is considered not solved yet. The new trends on this topic are related to the intrusion of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) with believes it can help significantly to the solution. The case study of an experiment in China during 2023 and published in BSSA (https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/ bssa/articleabstract/113/6/2461/627949/Earthquake-Forecasting-Using-Big-Data.) deals with the results critically assessed of the achievements in time, distance and magnitude of forthcoming earthquakes in a test area in China. Some other cases are also presented to help the reader to enter the last published development in the mass media of the topic and some speculations on it. The conclusions are that the proclaimed unprecedented accuracy of predicted parameters of forthcoming seismic events is strongly overestimated.

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Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Earthquake
Published
2025-01-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.59429/ear.v3i1.8254
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.96

Funders

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article

New trends in earthquake prediction – A case study of AI performance

Boyko Ranguelov
2 citations
Earthquake
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
4.96
article

New trends in earthquake prediction – A case study of AI performance

Boyko Ranguelov
article en
2 citations

Abstract

The short term earthquake prediction problem is considered not solved yet. The new trends on this topic are related to the intrusion of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) with believes it can help significantly to the solution. The case study of an experiment in China during 2023 and published in BSSA (https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/ bssa/articleabstract/113/6/2461/627949/Earthquake-Forecasting-Using-Big-Data.) deals with the results critically assessed of the achievements in time, distance and magnitude of forthcoming earthquakes in a test area in China. Some other cases are also presented to help the reader to enter the last published development in the mass media of the topic and some speculations on it. The conclusions are that the proclaimed unprecedented accuracy of predicted parameters of forthcoming seismic events is strongly overestimated.

EarthquakeVol. 3(1)
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BG), Space Research and Technology Institute (BG)
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Seismology and Earthquake Studies
4.96
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