Climate‐Dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights From Model Simulations

Abstract Previous studies on future scenarios identified two key effects of increasing on the African summer monsoon (ASM): Rising leads to an enhancement in moisture supply, favoring an increase in ASM precipitation (the thermodynamic effect). However, it also results in a weakening in mean atmospheric flow, thus facilitating a dryness across the ASM region (the dynamic effect). Therefore, the ultimate change in ASM precipitation stems from the balance of both the thermodynamic and dynamic effects. This study further examines the impact of rising on ASM rainfall, by taking into account various climate states. Our results suggest that an increase in during warm interglacial periods has a stronger influence from thermodynamic factors than from dynamic factors, resulting in an enhancement in ASM rainfall. In contrast, if increases under cold glacial climate backgrounds, its dynamic impact dominates a reduction of rainfall in most ASM region.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-05-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112717
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Climate‐Dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights From Model Simulations

Yongyun Hu, Chao‐Yuan Yang, Hu Yang, Roberta D’Agostino et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Climate variability and models
article

Climate‐Dependency of Impact of Increased Carbon Dioxide on African Monsoon Rainfall: Insights From Model Simulations

Yongyun Hu, Chao‐Yuan Yang, Hu Yang, Roberta D’Agostino, Gerrit Lohmann, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Martin Werner, Xiaoxu Shi, Jiping Liu, Hang Wang
article en

Abstract

Abstract Previous studies on future scenarios identified two key effects of increasing on the African summer monsoon (ASM): Rising leads to an enhancement in moisture supply, favoring an increase in ASM precipitation (the thermodynamic effect). However, it also results in a weakening in mean atmospheric flow, thus facilitating a dryness across the ASM region (the dynamic effect). Therefore, the ultimate change in ASM precipitation stems from the balance of both the thermodynamic and dynamic effects. This study further examines the impact of rising on ASM rainfall, by taking into account various climate states. Our results suggest that an increase in during warm interglacial periods has a stronger influence from thermodynamic factors than from dynamic factors, resulting in an enhancement in ASM rainfall. In contrast, if increases under cold glacial climate backgrounds, its dynamic impact dominates a reduction of rainfall in most ASM region.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(9)
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Université du Québec à Montréal (CA), Peking University (CN), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (IT), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (CN), National Research Council (IT), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (CN)
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 90%
Climate variability and models
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