Developing Low-Carbon Pathways for the Transport Sector in Ethiopia

This paper discusses the development of baseline and mitigation scenarios to guide the creation of a long-term plan supporting low-carbon transport in Ethiopia. Developing this method involved comprehensively reviewing policy documents, collecting historical activity data, and modelling the baseline and mitigation scenarios. The paper emphasises the importance of stakeholder engagement, which is instrumental in validating the model inputs, policy targets, and results at each stage, ensuring the credibility and robustness of our findings. The scenario development and analysis are based on the IPCC guidelines, informed by the policies of the Government of Ethiopia, and implemented with the Low-Energy Analysis Platform (LEAP). Three net-zero scenarios are assessed for the time horizon between 2020 to 2050. The so-called maximum ambition, NDC-aligned, and late action scenarios reflect the energy requirements and emissions contribution for varying levels of government ambition towards low-carbon interventions in the transport sector. In the baseline scenario, the total amount of carbon emissions is estimated at 4.81 million tonnes of CO2e in 2020, which is projected to increase to over 15 million tonnes by 2050. Under the mitigation scenarios, significant reductions are projected, with specific interventions like electrification in road freight reducing emissions by 9.68 MtCO2e and expanding rail transport reducing 9.95 MtCO2e by 2050 compared to the baseline. Other strategies identified for mitigating transport sector emissions, like improving energy efficiency, encouraging mass transit and non-motorised transport, show good potential for achieving a greener future. With the transport sector in Ethiopia identified as a major contributor to GHG emissions and climate change, this paper underscores the government’s efforts to ensure the long-term sustainability of its transport sector.