Spatial climate analogs in climate change research, impact assessment, and decision-making

Abstract Climate adaptation requires actionable scientific information about potential climate impacts. Spatial climate analogs answer the question, ‘where does the future climate of a focal location occur today?’ Analogs provide a means to develop measures of climate change exposure and can be applied to project climate change impacts. Although analogs are the basis for empirical models, recent applications of analogs have been structured as spatial models, which can contribute distinct information compared to more commonly used nonspatial approaches. Analogs may improve our ability to communicate climate change impacts for science and nonscience audiences. We review approaches for identifying analogs, summarize their applications, highlight understudied features, and examine evidence of their utility for science communication. We conclude by identifying research needs: the establishment of best practices for analog identification, the adoption of validation methods for analog impact models, and the evaluation of the utility of analogs for communication.

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Publication Details

Journal
BioScience
Published
2025-05-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaf031
Citations
6
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
11.03
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article

Spatial climate analogs in climate change research, impact assessment, and decision-making

Robin Rank, Sean A. Parks, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Thomas Colligan et al.
6 citations
BioScience
Species Distribution and Climate Change
11.03
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Spatial climate analogs in climate change research, impact assessment, and decision-making

Robin Rank, Sean A. Parks, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Thomas Colligan, Marco Maneta, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Carina Wyborn, Kimberley T. Davis, Svetlana Yegorova, Patrick Wurster, R. Kyle Bocinsky, Laurie Yung
article en
6 citations

Abstract

Abstract Climate adaptation requires actionable scientific information about potential climate impacts. Spatial climate analogs answer the question, ‘where does the future climate of a focal location occur today?’ Analogs provide a means to develop measures of climate change exposure and can be applied to project climate change impacts. Although analogs are the basis for empirical models, recent applications of analogs have been structured as spatial models, which can contribute distinct information compared to more commonly used nonspatial approaches. Analogs may improve our ability to communicate climate change impacts for science and nonscience audiences. We review approaches for identifying analogs, summarize their applications, highlight understudied features, and examine evidence of their utility for science communication. We conclude by identifying research needs: the establishment of best practices for analog identification, the adoption of validation methods for analog impact models, and the evaluation of the utility of analogs for communication.

BioScienceVol. 75(5)
Australian National University (AU), US Forest Service (US), Pivot Bio (United States) (US), Conservation Science Partners (US), Rocky Mountain Research Station (US), Rocky Mountain Research (United States) (US), University of Montana (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
11.03
DOISourceOpenAlex
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