Transit and Occultation Data Confirm a Decaying Orbit for WASP-12b

WASP-12b is the first reported hot Jupiter whose orbital period appears to be decreasing with time. This phenomenon can be interpreted using two models from earlier research: the decay of its orbit or the apsidal precession. This work chose the latest 118 transit and 6 occultation photometric observations conducted by TESS in Sectors 20, 43, 44, 45, 71, 72. They were combined with previous data to analyze the relationship between the orbit number, the mid-time of transit, and the mid-time of occultations (averaged over entire sectors to boost the signal-to-noise ratio), which favored the decay model with BIC = 104.09. Our value of decay rate , and the reduced tidal quality factor when interpreting the decay as tidal orbital decay, are both aligned with earlier studies and suggest that the orbit of WASP-12b is in a state of rapid decay. Future observations and theoretical work are necessary to further explain the physical processes driving this decay and to predict the end of life of WASP-12b.

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Journal
Theoretical and Natural Science
Published
2025-05-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/2025.22665
Primary Topic
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Transit and Occultation Data Confirm a Decaying Orbit for WASP-12b

Mei Zhang, Hao Meng, Yi‐Shan Wu, Zoutong Shen et al.
Theoretical and Natural Science
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
article

Transit and Occultation Data Confirm a Decaying Orbit for WASP-12b

Mei Zhang, Hao Meng, Yi‐Shan Wu, Zoutong Shen, Yang‐Hong‐Hong Fei
article en

Abstract

WASP-12b is the first reported hot Jupiter whose orbital period appears to be decreasing with time. This phenomenon can be interpreted using two models from earlier research: the decay of its orbit or the apsidal precession. This work chose the latest 118 transit and 6 occultation photometric observations conducted by TESS in Sectors 20, 43, 44, 45, 71, 72. They were combined with previous data to analyze the relationship between the orbit number, the mid-time of transit, and the mid-time of occultations (averaged over entire sectors to boost the signal-to-noise ratio), which favored the decay model with BIC = 104.09. Our value of decay rate , and the reduced tidal quality factor when interpreting the decay as tidal orbital decay, are both aligned with earlier studies and suggest that the orbit of WASP-12b is in a state of rapid decay. Future observations and theoretical work are necessary to further explain the physical processes driving this decay and to predict the end of life of WASP-12b.

Theoretical and Natural ScienceVol. 107(1)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US), East China University of Science and Technology (CN), Cornell University (US), Nanjing Foreign Language School (CN), Huazhong University of Science and Technology (CN)
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Openalex Percentile: Top 93%
Ionosphere and magnetosphere dynamics
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Transit and Occultation Data Confirm a Decaying Orbit for WASP-12b — Mei Zhang, Hao Meng, et al. · Theoretical and Natural Science (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS