Finding the Newest Evidence of Orbital Decay in Hot Jupiters

Measuring the rate of orbital decay of hot Jupiters can be used to determine the rate of dissipation of orbital oscillations inside the host star. However, currently, WASP-12 is the only HJ system that has shown concrete proof of orbital decay apart from the effect of other possible factors producing the changes in transit deviation. This paper presented the newest analysis of orbital decaying signs in selecting suitable Hot Jupiter systems: WASP-12, WASP-19, KELT-16, WASP-114, and WASP-4. We perform operations with the newly obtained TESS data, mostly scanned in 2023. WASP-12b shows consistent orbital decay, with a rate of ms and stellar dissipation rate which has been agreed with previous data for over a decade. WASP-19 has no remarkable indication of orbital decay with a constant transit timing deviation. WASP-4 presented insufficient data with outstanding randomness, disturbing the accuracy and uncertainty of the overall transit deviation trend. WASP-114 lacks data, producing an insignificant analysis and needing further observations. KELT-16 depicts the probable trend of quadratic transit timing deviation with confidence in the accuracy of the resulting statistical data, though whether the cause of this trend by orbital decay is unresolved. We discovered the minimum stellar dissipation rate of KELT-16 to be Q* with a 2.5 limit. Further performance on radial velocity and other components is needed.

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Publication Details

Journal
Theoretical and Natural Science
Published
2025-05-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/2025.22667
Primary Topic
Astro and Planetary Science
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Finding the Newest Evidence of Orbital Decay in Hot Jupiters

Shaukat Ali Shan, Bai Zhang, Jian Pan
Theoretical and Natural Science
Astro and Planetary Science
article

Finding the Newest Evidence of Orbital Decay in Hot Jupiters

Shaukat Ali Shan, Bai Zhang, Jian Pan
article en

Abstract

Measuring the rate of orbital decay of hot Jupiters can be used to determine the rate of dissipation of orbital oscillations inside the host star. However, currently, WASP-12 is the only HJ system that has shown concrete proof of orbital decay apart from the effect of other possible factors producing the changes in transit deviation. This paper presented the newest analysis of orbital decaying signs in selecting suitable Hot Jupiter systems: WASP-12, WASP-19, KELT-16, WASP-114, and WASP-4. We perform operations with the newly obtained TESS data, mostly scanned in 2023. WASP-12b shows consistent orbital decay, with a rate of ms and stellar dissipation rate which has been agreed with previous data for over a decade. WASP-19 has no remarkable indication of orbital decay with a constant transit timing deviation. WASP-4 presented insufficient data with outstanding randomness, disturbing the accuracy and uncertainty of the overall transit deviation trend. WASP-114 lacks data, producing an insignificant analysis and needing further observations. KELT-16 depicts the probable trend of quadratic transit timing deviation with confidence in the accuracy of the resulting statistical data, though whether the cause of this trend by orbital decay is unresolved. We discovered the minimum stellar dissipation rate of KELT-16 to be Q* with a 2.5 limit. Further performance on radial velocity and other components is needed.

Theoretical and Natural ScienceVol. 107(1)
Shanghai International Studies University (CN), South China Botanical Garden (CN)
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Openalex Percentile: Top 93%
Astro and Planetary Science
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Finding the Newest Evidence of Orbital Decay in Hot Jupiters — Shaukat Ali Shan, Bai Zhang, et al. · Theoretical and Natural Science (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS