America First 2.0: How Trump's 2024 Presidency Shapes ASEAN's Future

With Trump announcing his candidacy for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the potential return of the "America First" policy is poised to profoundly impact the global geopolitical and economic landscape. As a vital engine of global economic growth and a strategic hub, ASEAN countries experienced significant repercussions from the "America First" policy during Trump's first term. This study aims to explore how a potential second Trump presidency could reshape U.S.-ASEAN relations and how ASEAN nations might respond to the new geopolitical realities. This study combines historical analysis and textual analysis, approached from the perspectives of policy continuity and economic dynamics. This study assesses how U.S. first-term policies significantly affected ASEAN's economic and security landscape, particularly in trade and investment. Correspondingly, ASEAN countered these impacts by strengthening regional integration (e.g., RCEP, AEC) and deepening cooperation with regional powers. In the next term, the U.S. may shift toward greater economic and security engagement with ASEAN, balancing ASEAN's concerns with its own Indo-Pacific interests. For ASEAN, the new term presents both challenges and opportunities. ASEAN should enhance regional integration, adjust diplomatic strategies to balance major power competition, and strengthen collective response capabilities.