Rainfall-Induced Slope Instability in Tropical Regions Under Climate Change Scenarios

The reduction in the stability of rock slopes due to rainfall is a significant issue in tropical regions. Unsaturated soil, commonly found on hill slopes, provides higher shear strength compared to saturated soil due to matric suction. Soil moisture plays a crucial role in determining slope stability during rainfall events, yet it is often overlooked in geotechnical engineering projects. This study integrates both steady-state and transient analyses to examine how rainfall intensity affects the stability of a rock slope near a tunnel portal. Transient seepage analysis was conducted using SEEP/W to simulate changes in pore water pressure (PWP) resulting from rainfall infiltration under historical and future precipitation conditions. The analysis considers medium (SSP245) and worst-case (SSP585) climate change scenarios as per Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The findings underscore the significant impact of rainfall-induced infiltration on slope stability and highlight the importance of incorporating soil moisture dynamics in slope stability assessments. The safety factor, initially 1.54 before accounting for rainfall effects, decreases to 1.34 when the effects of rainfall are included.