Impact of Future Urban Expansion on Endemic Species in China at the Species Level

With accelerating urbanization, urban expansion poses a significant threat to biodiversity, especially to endemic species, which are more sensitive to land use changes. However, to date, the impacts of future urban expansion at the species level in China on endemic species remain unclear. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the impact of future urban expansion on endemic species in China under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2015 to 2050 using multiple indicators, including suitable habitat area changes, habitat fragmentation, and species extinction risk. The results show that from the perspective of suitable habitat loss and extinction risk, the negative impact of urban expansion in China from 2015 to 2050 may be greater for endemic species than for other species with a wide distribution. In addition, more than 56% of the affected species suffer from exacerbated habitat fragmentation. Biodiversity loss is more serious in regions with high endemic species richness and in urban agglomerations with rapid urban development in the future. Endemic birds and amphibians show high sensitivity to threats of urban expansion from various perspectives. This study provides a basis for biodiversity conservation, guiding the balance between urban development and biodiversity protection.