Party Affiliation of the US President and Path Dependence in the Bilateral Relationship With Mexico at Five Critical Junctures

ABSTRACT The historical bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States has been marked by punctuated equilibrium, including extended periods of stability disrupted by sudden endogenous change. These critical junctures forced decisions and realignments, creating a path dependency of action from the north and adaptation from the south of the border. This study examines the role of party affiliation of the US Executive in managing critical junctures. Five historically significant events have shaped stability and change in the US‐Mexico relations: the Bracero Program, NAFTA, the Tequila Effect, the Merida Initiative, and USMCA. Convergences and divergences in foreign policy shifts toward Mexico during Republican and Democratic administrations have had long‐term implications. The five critical junctures revisited in this reach revealed a correlation between increasing conflict during Republican presidencies and parsimony during Democratic administrations. Nevertheless, Republicans left clear legacies that reinforce institutional reproduction of the bilateral relations even in challenging contexts.