Analysis of Flexible Adjustment Potential for the Air-conditioning System in a Lithium Battery Factory Based on Model Prediction

Abstract Air conditioning systems are major energy consumers in industrial buildings, directly affecting production quality and efficiency. This study focuses on the air conditioning system of a lithium battery manufacturing plant located in Fujian Province. Using operational data, a cooling load prediction model is developed to assess the system’s potential for flexible adjustment in response to grid scheduling, aimed at reducing electricity costs. The results reveal that the prediction model can accurately forecast the plant’s cooling demand, with a MAPE of 7.02% and a CV-RMSE of 9.01%. Moreover, the chilled water storage tank in the plant is identified as a flexible energy resource, and its operation strategy is optimized under time-of-use pricing to achieve flexible response and cost savings. The simulation results demonstrate that leveraging this flexible energy resource can lead to significant operational cost savings, achieving a air-conditioning system cost-saving rate of 32.15%. Meanwhile, the factory’s total electricity peak shaving ratio (△P%) of 15.38% can be attained due to the flexible energy resource, with the flexibility index (FI) accordingly increasing from 0.32 to 0.43. This study is expected to provide valuable data and insights to support carbon neutrality efforts in industrial buildings.