Analyzing the Influence of Risk Perception on Commuters’ Travel Mode Choice in Heavy Rainfall: Evidence from Qingdao, China, Using the RGWRR Model

Risk perception and travel behavior under extreme weather have attracted increasing scholarly attention due to their implications for sustainable transport. This study investigates how perceived risks influence commuters’ travel mode choices during heavy rainfall in Qingdao, China, using data from a pilot survey and a stated choice experiment. A Range-varying Generalized Weberian Regret–Rejoice Model (RGWRRM) is developed to capture nonlinear perceptual sensitivities and decision-making under uncertainty. Results indicate that safety and reliability risks significantly shape travel behavior, with commuters showing heightened loss aversion and increased willingness to pay for safer and more dependable modes. The RGWRRM outperforms traditional utility- and regret-based models, offering deeper behavioral insights. By elucidating the mechanisms linking risk perception to mode shifts, this study contributes to the design of resilient and sustainable urban transport strategies in the face of climate-induced disruptions.