Spatiotemporal Changes in China’s Mangroves and Their Possible Impacts on Coastal Water Quality from 1998 to 2018

Mangroves serve as critical transitional ecosystems between land and sea. However, their large-scale possible impacts on coastal water quality have not been investigated. This study systematically examined the possible impacts of mangrove dynamics on coastal water quality in China over a 20-year period (1998–2018). Theil–Sen trend analysis and Mann-Kendall tests were employed to assess long-term trends of mangrove area and four water quality indicators: chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), particulate attenuation coefficient at 660 nm (Cp660), and seawater transparency (Secchi disk depth, SDD). Partial correlation analysis and convergent cross-mapping (CCM) techniques were applied to evaluate the relationships between mangroves and water quality parameters, while a factor detector was used to quantify the specific contribution of mangroves to water quality improvement. The results revealed the following: (1) a significant nationwide expansion of mangroves, particularly after 2005, accompanied by accelerated recovery rates; (2) notable variations in water quality indicators, with SDD and CDOM experiencing degradation, while Chl-a and Cp660 showed varying degrees of improvement; (3) statistical evidence indicating that mangrove expansion was negatively partially correlated with Chl-a concentrations, and had moderate effects on CDOM, Cp660, and SDD. These findings highlight the measurable role of mangroves in improving coastal water quality at a national scale, provide a robust scientific basis for integrated coastal zone management, and underscore the need for further investigation into the underlying mechanisms, with comprehensive consideration of the dynamic impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities.