Temperature directly correlates with emergency surgical case admissions independent of seasonality

Weather parameters impact patient admission to emergency departments (EDs) and due to pressures of overcrowding, it is imperative to better forecast admission levels. This retrospective single-centre study aimed to assess whether ambient temperature independently predicts emergency department (ED) admissions, beyond typical seasonal variation. We analysed 150,751 admissions to the ED of the University Hospital Klinikum rechts der Isar (MRI) in Munich, Germany from 2019-2022. Patients were divided into either surgical or internal medicine groups. Their post-treatment status as well as discharge type ('outpatient' versus 'inpatient') was also recorded. Descriptive statistics as well as linear models were used to identify and test statistically significant correlations of ED and weather variables. Patient admissions of the surgery group were directly correlated with changes in ambient temperature. This relationship persisted consistently across all seasons, suggesting a temperature effect that is independent of typical seasonal fluctuations. Whilst ED patient intake of the internal medicine group decreased during some holidays, spring as well as on weekends, sharp increases could be seen during the Oktoberfest period and Christmas. Despite minor variances, this was not the case in the surgery group. Here, the overall direct correlation of temperature and surgical patient levels for the period between 2019-22 seems highly significant. Temperature changes lead to more surgical cases irrespective of the season and more outpatient discharges, whilst inpatient admissions generally seem rather unresponsive to weather changes. A better allocation of resources in ED departments results from superior understandings of trigger factors and temperature has thus been rendered a particularly potent one.